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A home for economists who believe macroeconomics can be both coherent and stabilization-policy relevant

What is the GEMproject?

What is the GEMproject?

The GEM website is a home for economists who believe that mainstream macroeconomics cannot usefully explain the costly instability that periodically rocks modern economies.

In particular, consensus thinking failed to guide policymakers' efforts to deal with the enormous welfare costs of the 2007-09 Great Recession – especially six million involuntarily lost jobs.

That failure is not surprising. Forced unemployment is beyond the reach of coherent market-centric theory that today dominates macro research.

The GEM Project offers an alternative approach that intuitively explains instability while maintaining both coherence and stabilization-relevance. In its central innovation, the Project generalizes rational exchange from the marketplace to the large-firm workplace, crucially microfounding meaningful wage rigidities – the key to policy-useful modeling.

Generalization of price-mediated exchange is offered as the next big idea in macroeconomics. We invite economists dissatisfied with the stabilization-policy limitations of mainstream theory to join us in constructing a better model.

The interactive GEM website provides a variety of ways to contribute:

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Current Blog

  • GEMproject Weekly Blog

    Economics of Downsizing

    By James Annable | May 11, 2026

    Involuntary job loss is more than cyclical unemployment, despite such layoffs being exclusively featured in textbook IJL analysis. Macro theorists ignore noncyclical joblessness for no better reason than not knowing how to model the rational firm downsizing that induces the phenomenon. It doesn’t surprise readers of this Blog that the GEM Project’s generalization of rational price-mediated exchange from the marketplace to workplaces restricted by asymmetric employer-employee information provides the missing analytic tools. The explication of downsizing that follows again demonstrates the debilitating limits of mainstream friction-augmented general-market-equilibrium modeling.  

    LEV (large-establishment venue) workplace behavior uniquely identifies the core analytical difference between temporary layoffs and permanent job downsizing. In the first, worker reference standards (denoted by Ҝ) remain rationally unchanged; in the second, Ҝ is rationally recalibrated. This post’s elaboration on that difference is rooted in the GEM-derived continuous (decision-rule) equilibrium timepath of total employment that accommodates both cyclical and noncyclical involuntary job loss.

    Cyclical and trend labor-market failure is inherent to highly specialized economies, requires market and nonmarket analysis, and generates important macro evidence centrally including (in predictable circumstances) cyclical and noncyclical IJL. Asymmetric workplace information, chronic wage rent, routinized employment, job seniority, free riders, and moral hazard force rational responses to weakening nonstationary demand that include the eventual recalibration of Ҝ and consequent cuts in wage rent. The GEM Project has shown permanent job downsizing to be an inherently time-intensive process rooted in declining trend pure profit (residual firm revenue after all production inputs are paid), frequently resolving in bankruptcy.

    This post elaborates on the GEM introduction of the fact of job downsizing into rational general decision-rule equilibrium macro theory by reviewing four interrelated manifestations of the phenomenon in the literature.

    Depression Downsizing

    Mainstream theorists continue to be stumped by the by the...

    Read More

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